Unbelievable
It just gets worse and worse for Corbyn on the anti-semitic front. But will it make any difference? I doubt it. G-d help Britain if he becomes PM.
May is scarcely any better (Brexit wise not anti-semitic wise).
New blood is needed. Stat. The popular money is on Boris Johnson but the best choice would be Jacob Rees-Mogg (although that ain't gonna happen - unless there's a civil war).
Politics is tough to sort everywhere these days.
ReplyDeleteSo I read the WSJ and here's an article that makes me feel sympathy for MbS, from KSA. Yeah, hip-hop is something of a conundrum, you know?
Here's where we're missing Aridog. One of the few people in the world who could converse intelligently on hip-hop *and* politics *and* Islam (trifecta).
WSJ has a pay wall. Ain't paying for that brother.
DeleteI will venture *opinions*.
ReplyDeleteBritain is going to have a rough time of it with Brexit.
Why? Because Britain is leveraged AF in terms of its "all in" (public and private) balance sheet. Her banks are too big to bail.
Britain is not alone in this league; Switzerland and Singapore come to mind.
Iceland and Cyprus are examples of that kind of finance driven economy tipping over and sinking, albeit at a smaller scale.
If Britain cratered like that, the resulting financial tsunami would wreck the global system.
Britain is kinda counting on MAD game theory operating at global scale to help avoid that - which presumes rational, self interested players at the table.
But... Europe is insane.
The US is... hobbled by internal division right now and the smart money which _can_ wait for the next turn of the screw is doing just that.
(Sorry my fellow Americans: but it had to be said.)
China's cooperation, if it were to come at all, will come at an exorbitant price (because they are not stupid).
My sense is that there are no adults left running the global finance machine at all; those of you looking for the *big reset* might get what you've been waiting for.
Less poetically: policy makers will lose the "control" of markets that they've convinced themselves they'd obtained, and the resulting unconstrained volatility (of currencies and sov bond markets especially) will wreak havoc on a Hard Brexit'd City.
I'm not nearly as financially savvy as you lewy. All I know is that I have a comfortable amount of retirement and other savings, and own a house with no mortgage.
DeleteWe have no debts and Matt is still working so we have income as well as savings.
DeleteOdds are I'm talking out my ass.
Delete(I often do. Sounds nifty tho.)
I hope so.
Meanwhile back at the ranch... having a super fun time watching Turkey burn to the ground.
ReplyDeleteDo you know why? Because I lost about 20% all in with my foray into being an EM bond playa, investing in Turkish assets.
Do you know why I'm nonetheless stoked AF right now? Because I *only* lost 20%, having thrown in the towel in 2013.
People who still believed, as of the close today, that Turkey was on its way to being a normal country have now lost skin/flesh/bone/marrow.... mmm, soup for the Finance Gods....
It strikes me that what I wrote is uncharitable at best. It isn't healthy for the soul to gain joy through another's misery.
DeleteThen let me hope that the current learning opportunity is perceived as a "teachable moment" for those who need teaching. This is something to be happy about.
Okay, I have to ask, WTF you would be investing in an Islamic State such as Turkey?
DeleteBecause for many years, Erdogan looked like a competent enough reformer, and he was popular. And because the economic results of the country were excellent, TBH.
DeleteSame story in Brazil, tbh. (Minus the Islam of course.)
Aaaaand both reverted to form. Boom.
I just took the hint early. The Lira was still at a one-handle IIRC.
Erdogan did an interview on Bloomberg a couple months ago.
DeleteHonest to god Evil Knievel made more sense.
Another thing that made sense to me at the time, and has since been proven wrong, or incomplete:
DeleteTurkish Islamism isn't Saudi Islamism.
I still believe this. It's just that Turkish Islamism turns out to be just as whackadoodle, in it's own precious snowflake kinda way.
Well OK then. Good to know.
its. its.
DeleteHi Lewy, long time no speak - from me at any rate.
DeleteI have to admit I hardly have a clue what you're talking about and don't understand what AF means (unless it's an abbreviation for a rude word, and even then I don't know what it is!)
But if you're looking for investments have you ever looked at the Israeli economy? Tons of good stuff there.
Ignore the wars. They come and go. We've survived them all and will keep on keeping on, got no choice. Just been through another mini-one. Not that the world noticed until Israel retaliated. Ho hum.
annie, hi there!
DeleteYeah OK here's teh catch-up on the lingo thing: AF stands for "as f**k".
Expanding: "leveraged as f**k" meaning "having borrowed many, many times the GDP of the nation to fund banking assets"... gross debt (public and private):
Great Britain, Germany (Deutsche Bank in particular), Switzerland, the Netherlands: these are countries where the central banks and finance ministries simply could not step in the way that the US Fed and Treasury did in the last crisis. Too small and too weak relative to the size of the asset pile. Boom. There it is.
Here's the thing that most people don't understand about banking risk: it's measured in this thing called VaR, which stands for Value at Risk. And when there is more of a wild ride in the currency and sovereign bond markets, the VaR indicator reads red.
Then the banks are _literally forced_ to sell, because of regulatory guidelines on capital sufficiency.
(This is how crisis can feed off of themselves, like wildfires.)
Moving on to happier topics: Israeli tech. Want moar.
Outside of China, where will tech survive?
Silicon Valley, probably. The money and power there will literally fight to survive. Be prepared to table sub rosa avionics inquiries from Cali billionaires fed up with DC. Tel Aviv will be one of their first stops.
Singapore. Those cats are with it.
Japan. The population there isn't planning to retire or die. They're kinda planning to upload to the cloud, tbh. They have the best shot.
Israel. 'Nuff said.
;)
A note on jargon in general, and my finance jargon in specific:
DeleteI take pride in using _standard_ jargon. :)
Meaning: the terms I use should be googleable. E.g. Googling "VaR value at risk" should produce results which shed light on what exactly it is I'm talking about above (should anyone care. Etc.)
I think it is about time for all those who are "too big to fail" to fail. They put themselves in the position where they thought others would pay their last dime to bail them out.
ReplyDeleteI say screw'm.
I have argued against this kinda thinking for the last ten years.
DeleteAaaaand this is where I STFU. Personally, truly, deeply STFU.
Because you ain't wrong at all to feel that way, my brother.
Let the chips fall where they may.
Hi Fay, sorry I haven't been around for ages. I read the blog and lurk but as you can see, I haven't commented for ages.
ReplyDeleteI've been writing about Jeremy Corbyn and his antisemitism for ages. It's just so depressing. Nothing seems to change, certainly not for the better. Teh only good thing is that now, finally, the British MSM have woken up and Corbyn has basically made himself unelectable.
That in itself takes a certain talent since Theresa May has made herself too almost unelectable. I can't tell what will happen re Brexit. I don't live in England, and anyway, even the Brits don't really know how it's going to pan out.
Interesting times - at least for those of us out of the country. Those within it must be finding it a rocky ride.
New blood is needed in Britain AND in the US (and Canada. Justin from Canada MUST go).
ReplyDeleteHi Annie! :)