Meanwhile, the Senate Democrats scramble to put their own plan on the table.
The President has rolled up his sleeves and is working very hard.
The press is diligently digging up facts and impartially reporting events as they occur.
The bar is open.
Thursday, July 28, 2011
News Summary
House Republicans are meeting to fine tune a plan to avert a national default and bring down our outrageous debt burden.
Meanwhile, the Senate Democrats scramble to put their own plan on the table.
The President has rolled up his sleeves and is working very hard.
The press is diligently digging up facts and impartially reporting events as they occur.
The bar is open.
Meanwhile, the Senate Democrats scramble to put their own plan on the table.
The President has rolled up his sleeves and is working very hard.
The press is diligently digging up facts and impartially reporting events as they occur.
The bar is open.
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I'll have whatever is in the snifter, and leave the bottle.
ReplyDeleteHave you ever seen such a ridiculous mess in all your life?
Of course, I'm just a hobbit...what do I know?
ReplyDeleteOMG, your graphics are perfect, I literally laughed out loud!!
ReplyDeleteThank gawd, otherwise I'd be crying over our nincompoop representatives...
(Now the "Lollipop Guild" song is running through my head...
ReplyDeleteI think the House is about to vote on Boehner's abortion...I'm not sure he has the votes. The hobbits, beaten bloody but sticking to their guns, are praying in the rotunda.
ReplyDeleteLOL! Great post Lady Red. You can either laugh or cry in this situation. It's good you chose to laugh. Crying certainly won't help and laughter is the best medicine after all - and it's free! :)
ReplyDeleteIt's not much better out here, though I have a bit more faith in our Prime Minister than you do in your Prez. I just hope our biased press, together with the leftists agitating in our latest social protests, gives Bibi a chance to try and fix things.
I'm not saying Bibi is all innocent in the problem of rising cost of housing and child-care, but he's not the only culprit as the press and the left are trying to make out. We've had decades of rampant mismanagement and hyper-capitalism, and it can't be fixed overnight.
Hilarious, lady red. I think you have your finger on the pulse of the nation.
ReplyDeleteI'd hazard a guess that our "true progressive" friends are in broad agreement with your visuals, except with respect to who are the villains and who are the heros.
It is the extreme wing in each party which is preventing a compromise, status quo solution. Which is understandable, and arguably a good thing, because the status quo compromise is how we got to unsustainable debt in the first place.
But that begs the question of how this will play out.
Boehner's bill is a sideshow. The Senate will not pass it. They will pass something - and Reid will have the votes I believe to get something more or less unilaterally. The salient feature of this bill will be that it will give Obama cover - the debt ceiling will extend past 2012 election season.
This will arrive back at the House on Monday.
Then it will be up to the House to vote on it. Will sufficient Republicans defect? The media machine will be spun up to full Apocalypse mode at that point; whatever happens will be blamed on the House GOP - even if nothing much happens, the media will shove blame for the lousy economy onto the GOP (the MSM having suddenly embraced the "regime uncertainty" meme which they'd been studiously discrediting when it was aimed at Obama).
Obama has effectively taken himself out of this game, but he's done it in such a way as to avoid blame - simply, the last move is not his. The Tea Party caucus in the House is also out of the game - they don't have enough votes or branches of government to get their way - and they have not managed to avoid the blame machine.
That's just the way I see what's going down. I'm waiting to see what Reid comes up with over the weekend.
Here's how I see it: by end of the day Monday, Reid and Boehner will sing kum-ba-ya and Nero will scribble his auto-signature while putting the 16th green at Whiskey Creek.
ReplyDeletePelosi will fling a big honkin' mudpie at Boehner, and McConnell will slip Reid a whoopie cushion. Big John will go a-huntin' those wascally hobbits, while Mooch cuts up another set of White House drapes for a new outfit. Business as usual. :))
lewy - I'm not sure I agree with you that the president has avoided blame.
ReplyDeleteI saw Luntz on yesterday and he was showing the results of one of his analysis of political ads - you know, the one with the red and blue lines that people adjust according to their feelings?
Anyway, the commercial that resonated the most with Dems and Repubs alike is the one by AARP that shows the elderly people talking about all the stupid programs that are funded and urges hands off medicare.
But another commercial that rated in a very interesting way was the one with the scared woman at night talking about how she voted for Obama, but now was terrified and had no faith in him. Predictably, this appealed more to Republicans than Democrats, but the Democrats didn't hate it. In fact, they they were only at the halfway line rather than a sharp drop to the bottom! And not only that, but it was a steady half-way line for the entire "I don't like him anymore" part of the monologue.
It was very interesting. And very different than even six months ago, I think.
I agree with afw, I don't think the repubs will get all the blame. After all, they are the ones who have put up legislation several times in an attempt to solve this problem (I was for the Ryan bill and my second choice, CC & B). Of course, the haters and dumbos will blame the Repubs but nothing would sway them from that sentiment no matter WHAT happened.
ReplyDeleteI think the American people aren't as dumb as Obama and McCain think they are.
Obama is toast, he's out in 17+ months. Miss Cleo has spoken!
Tempers in DC seem a little frayed this evening. Even the talking heads are on the verge of fistfights.
ReplyDeletePopcorn anyone?
AFW, your comments are heartening. I think that many Americans hold ALL the effers responsible, but Obama is the prez. This total dearth of leadership occurred on his watch. Like Miss Cleo said: he's toast.
lady red, are you referring to Pat Caddell and Hugh Hewitt? I missed seeing it but I heard it from another room and Tom told me what happened!!
ReplyDeleteI like Pat, he's not partisan, just common sense.
It'll really be fun when Steny Hoyer and Mitch McConnell start slugging it out.
Speaking of talking heads... I like Rush's take. I'm not a huge fan of his but in this instance he's on the money.
ReplyDeleteI got some interesting "inside baseball" today; a friend read me a section from an internal communication in a Giant Wall St Bank of Money (which shall remain nameless)... said communication outlined the expected trajectory of the legislation over the next days.
The expectation was that Boehner's bill would boomerang back to the House with Reid's changes by Monday at the latest. So it turns out Rush has had this all figured out since this morning. As of this evening, it appears that the Tea Party folks have all figured out this is a trap. The bill will come back with bullshit instead of cuts, and enough debt ceiling room to get Obama past the election. They would have accomplished precisely nothing.
Why vote for Boehner's bill? All it does is affirm Boehner's status-quo establishment leadership over the Tea Party freshmen. They end up passing Reid's bill and giving Obama a big leg up.
The downside is, they will be blamed. I understand afw's arguments but I would caution against misunderestimating the media's 24x7x365 cover for Obama. The newsrooms do not represent the polls - interestingly the news rooms are much less poll driven than the politicians - and the newsrooms figure they can run the table with Murdoch diminished and distracted. And in the long run (the election is a ways away) they might be right.
Boehner looks to be utterly disempowered. On the one hand, the Tea Party folks have jammed the machine. But they don't have the numbers to lead and they've effectively incapacitated the GOP. I don't say this like it's a bad thing, but IMO it's important to recognize that we're essentially rudderless here.
The Tea Party has refudiated the establishment (as of this hour - but we're now heading into unknown territory here fiscally and legally and the Tea Party caucus is friendless in a city where the media and the political ruling class and the corporate ruling class are (more or less) on the same page.
The establishment will have quite a grudge to settle.
If Boehner's vote fails and Reid can't get 60 votes over the weekend, I think it's game over for the August 2 deadline.
I think Treasury can scramble and avoid the worst for perhaps a month or so. In August, half a trillion in debt comes due and has to be rolled - I think the market will cooperate for a month or so. Treasury will prioritize payments. The Fed has some tricks up its sleeve as well.
But what the markets will be looking for is some reasonable expectation of closure. I don't know if this is forthcoming.
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard had a breathless piece in the Telegraph warning of the danger. Dude is seriously overwrought but his broad point is correct: whatever the merits of austerity (and they are considerable), an instant and more or less uncontrolled crash of Federal spending in the 40% range will have a profoundly negative effect on the economy.
I appreciate hearing your analysis, lewy, it's insightful as always.
ReplyDelete(and am glad to see you agree w/ Rush, he was also right on re: Op Fast & Furious, IMO)
flo, thanks. I'm just trying to enumerate the possibilities and consequences as I see them.
ReplyDeleteI think markets are beginning to price in a collision with the debt ceiling around now. Monday should be a trip. As of this hour stock futures are down and the dollar is _stronger_ against the Euro and the resource currencies (CAD, AUD). Go figure. If the stock market plunges Monday, and gold is steady or down, and the dollar and Treasuries are up - buy gold and stocks and foreign bonds. If everything goes down... run for the hills...
One thing I'd bet against - this 14th amendment nonsense. The bond market would treat that as worse than a default - the Treasury market would be tainted with bonds of questionable legality. Geithner and the Wall St puppeteers will dissuade him from that course. (Wall St can be counted on to look after their interests - in this instance IMHO their interests and that of the country coincide - take it when you can get it kinda thing).
Although - on re-reading the thread - I think there's at least still a substantial chance we will see the scenario which was the subject of lady red's sober and considered elucidation in #8. That analysis, perspicacious, and possessed of a condign solemnity, remains the baseline scenario.
ReplyDelete:D
(Yeah. I'm a wiseass.)
Thanks for the insight lewy. The growing suspicion that the public has been played isn't going to help the public confidence level at all, is it?
ReplyDeleteThe GDP numbers have been revised this morning, showing that our growth was damn near stagnant for the last two quarters. Lovely.
I'm glad you like my redneck analysis. It wasn't much of a stretch from current events. 8-}
Oh FFS, that idiot is going BACK on TV this morning at 10:20 ET. Shut up Obama! JUST STFU!
ReplyDeleteLewy sez ... (Yeah. I'm a wiseass.)
ReplyDeleteProblem is that you, and the "redneck savant" :D , both may be correct wise asses.
lady red said...
ReplyDeleteOh FFS, that idiot is going BACK on TV this morning ...
Thanks for the warning.
Well, he didn't say anything. At all. What was the point? His advisors reek, they really do.
ReplyDelete/wandering away with my coffe cup...
Oh FFS, that idiot is going BACK on TV this morning at 10:20 ET. Shut up Obama! JUST STFU!
ReplyDeleteDear God and Baby Jesus!
img:"http://i4.photobucket.com/albums/y117/floranista/aridogsnewest.gif"
I guess he's going to TRY to explain it to us drooling hobbits.
(yes, I'm a thief as RWC says, but Aridog never posts it anymore so... :-)
I just heard the latest dem talking point.
ReplyDelete"The Bush recession was worse than we first thought."
I kid you not.
The Bush recession was worse than we first thought.
ReplyDeleteWell... on the scale of political BS, this is only mid range, not exceptional.
In a sense, it's absolutely fair. The recession technically started in December '07; it was summer '08 when we realized we'd had two quarters of negative growth. So yes, the recession started on Bush's watch. Bush outsourced the implementation of his "ownership society" to the likes of Barney Frank. He was oblivious to the risk accumulating in the mortgage markets, and the systemic effects of a crash. (To be fair, so was I, and many other people. Economists like Rubini did get some of it right). If I were president I'd be calling it the "Bush recession" too.
But if it's the Bush recession, then it's the Obama "recovery". Technically we've been out of recession for some time and the recovery in job creation has been by far the worst among all post war recessions. The nature of this recession - balance sheet, as opposed to business cycle - was widely known. Instead of reading Reinhart and Rogoff, Obama listened to Krugman and Stiglitz - and ignored common sense. He made things worse, and he owns the crappy recovery lock stock and barrel.
Let me clarify some opaque parts on my #24 above. If a recession is a regular business cycle recession, and if the fiscal situation of a country is sound, then Keynesian fiscal policy may be appropriate (reasonable people may differ, and I'll leave it at that).
ReplyDeleteBut if it's a balance sheet recession, and the fiscal position of the country is weak, then all Keynesian policy (deficit spending, stimulus) will do is create a sovereign debt crisis (this is Reinhart and Rogoff's analysis). From what I know of Keynes, my guess is that if he were alive, he'd agree.
Balance sheet recessions suck, there's no quick cure. In that sense the Dems are correct to say "the Bush recession was worse than we thought", but the proper response is "well what the f**k were you thinking, then?"
I could go on about what I would have done different - skip that - but I do think that there was a better path available than the one taken.
Dammit lewy, stop making sense!
ReplyDeleteJust kidding, I kid :-)
The thing is, almost everybody knows the recession didn't start the day BO was sworn in. I'm just so sick of hearing about GWB, I was sick of him for the last 2 years of his presidency and I don't want to hear any more about him. I want to know that they are taking this spending crisis seriously, it's the fault of ALL politicians for the last several decades. They need to get over the frickin' blame game and fix the g-damn thing.
flo - gotta ask - was the reference intentional?
ReplyDeleteI wish I could say it was!
ReplyDeleteLOL at the completely spontaneous Talking Heads references!
ReplyDeleteI'm just hoping this ain't the next one...